Market mood, compressed into one number between 0 and 100. Zero is extreme fear, one hundred is extreme greed. It is published by alternative.me and is the version almost everybody quotes. It measures how people are behaving, not what anything is worth. A reading of 90 does not mean the market is expensive; it means people are acting the way they act when they think it is going up.
Live. The figure above updates in your browser while this page is open, and the page was built with a real one in it rather than a blank.
The plain description
Market mood, compressed into one number between 0 and 100. Zero is extreme fear, one hundred is extreme greed. It is published by alternative.me and is the version almost everybody quotes.
It measures how people are behaving, not what anything is worth. A reading of 90 does not mean the market is expensive; it means people are acting the way they act when they think it is going up.
Stated so you could reproduce it
The published index is a weighted blend, roughly: volatility against its own recent average, market momentum and volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance, and search trends. The weights are the publisher's and are not independently audited.
It updates once a day. A number that updates daily cannot describe an hour, which is worth remembering when it is quoted in the middle of a fast move.
The bands, and what each one actually means
| Reading | What it indicates |
|---|---|
| 0 to 24, extreme fear | People are selling or refusing to buy. Historically these readings have clustered near lows, which is where the "be greedy when others are fearful" line comes from. |
| 25 to 44, fear | Caution, but not capitulation. |
| 45 to 55, neutral | No strong lean either way. The least informative band. |
| 56 to 74, greed | Confidence, rising participation. |
| 75 to 100, extreme greed | Euphoria. Historically these readings have clustered near local tops, though "clustered near" is a long way from "marks". |
The part that gets left out
- It is not a timing tool. Extreme greed can persist for weeks, and it has, repeatedly. Selling every time it crosses 75 would have taken you out of most of the largest runs.
- It is partly circular. Momentum and volatility are inputs, so when price rises the index rises, and people then cite the index as evidence for the rise.
- Social media inputs are easy to distort and get louder every cycle as more of that activity is automated.
- One number for "the market" hides the fact that Bitcoin and a microcap meme coin are not in the same emotional state and never were.