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Market cap against fully diluted value
Market cap counts the tokens that exist and trade today. Fully diluted value counts every token that will ever exist, at today's price. When those two are far apart, most of the supply has not arrived yet, and it is going to.
The tokens still locked up belong to somebody. Teams, early investors, treasury, ecosystem funds. They were usually acquired at a fraction of the current price, and they unlock on a published schedule that anybody can read. When those tokens hit the market they compete with you to sell.
A ratio near one means the supply is already out and what you see is what there is. A ratio of five means four fifths of the eventual supply is still waiting, and the chart you are looking at has not met it yet.
Find the unlock schedule
Reputable projects publish it. If you cannot find one, that is the finding. A supply schedule nobody will show you is a supply schedule you will meet by surprise.
Compare the unlock to daily volume
Fifty million tokens arriving into a market that trades two million a day is a different event from the same unlock into a market that trades two hundred million. The absolute number means nothing on its own.
Ask who is unlocking
Investors who bought at a cent behave differently from a treasury paying for development over years. Same tokens, completely different pressure.
This calculator holds the market cap constant to show the dilution cleanly. Real markets do not, and price usually starts moving well before the unlock date, because everyone can read the same schedule.
Common questions
Is a high FDV always bad?
No, but it is always a question. It means the current price is being paid for a supply that mostly does not exist yet. That can be fine if demand grows with the supply. It usually does not.
Where do I find circulating and total supply?
CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap list both, and the project documentation should as well. If the three disagree, find out why before you buy.
Does an unlock always drop the price?
Not always. Sometimes it is priced in weeks ahead, sometimes the recipients do not sell, and occasionally the unlock is the excuse for a bounce. The calculator shows the mechanical effect, not the market reaction.
Want a hand using these on your own position?
We go through it together on a call. Your holdings, your risk, your setup. You click everything and we never ask for keys.