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What went wrong

Terra and Luna

A dollar backed by nothing except the promise that you could always swap it for another token, which worked perfectly until the moment everybody tried.

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By the Orca Crypto teamUpdated 2026-09-016 min readCase study
In one line

What happened

A dollar backed by nothing except the promise that you could always swap it for another token, which worked perfectly until the moment everybody tried.

WhenMay 2022
What kind of failureAlgorithmic stablecoin collapse
What it costAbout $40 billion of market value in under a week
What was promised

The version the public saw

UST was a stablecoin that held its dollar peg without holding dollars. Instead, one UST could always be exchanged for one dollar of LUNA and back again, and arbitrage would keep the price at a dollar. The Anchor protocol paid around twenty percent on UST deposits, which was described as a savings rate and attracted billions.

What was actually happening

Underneath the same period

The design only holds while LUNA has enough market value to absorb redemptions. Burning UST mints LUNA, so a wave of people leaving UST mints enormous quantities of LUNA, which destroys its price, which makes each remaining UST claim on less value, which causes more people to leave. The mechanism that defends the peg in calm conditions is the mechanism that destroys it under stress. The twenty percent Anchor rate was subsidized from a reserve, not earned.

How it came apart

The sequence

  1. Large withdrawals from Anchor

    On 7 May 2022 several hundred million dollars of UST left Anchor and was sold. The peg slipped slightly.

  2. The peg breaks

    Selling accelerated. UST fell to about 35 cents within days as holders redeemed into LUNA and sold it.

  3. LUNA hyperinflates

    Supply went from around 350 million tokens to over six trillion in a matter of days. The price fell from about $80 to a fraction of a cent.

  4. The chain halts

    Validators stopped the Terra blockchain on 12 May to prevent governance attacks. Around $40 billion of value had gone.

What was visible at the time

The signals, before anybody knew the ending

None of these needed hindsight. Each one was public, or checkable, while the money was still there.

Warning signs
  • A stablecoin with no reserves, holding its peg by design rather than by backing
  • A twenty percent rate on a dollar asset, paid from a reserve rather than earned
  • A reflexive mechanism where the defense and the failure use the same lever
  • Prominent economists publicly describing the design as unworkable, before it failed
Where it stands now

The aftermath

Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in 2023 on a false passport charge, eventually extradited, and sentenced to fifteen years in December 2025. The collapse triggered the failures of Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, Voyager and others through the following months.

What to take from it

The part that changes what you do

The lesson

"Stablecoin" describes an intention, not a mechanism. Before holding one, find out what actually backs it: cash and short term government debt with published attestations, crypto collateral held in excess, or nothing but an algorithm. Those are three completely different risks wearing the same word.

Common questions

Are all stablecoins at risk of this?
No. The algorithmic design is what failed. Fully reserved stablecoins holding cash and treasury bills have a different and much smaller risk, which is whether the issuer really holds what it says. The word covers both.
Could Terra have been saved?
A bitcoin reserve was built specifically to defend the peg and was spent doing so without stopping it. Once the reflexive loop started, no reserve of a plausible size could have absorbed the redemptions.
What was Anchor and why did it matter?
A lending protocol paying about twenty percent on UST, funded largely from a reserve that was being topped up rather than from borrower demand. It was the reason most of the money was there, and an unsustainable rate is what concentrated the risk.

Would your setup have survived this?

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